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Public Teams & Bowl Motivation
It’s important to understand at this time of year what public teams are. Public teams are most often football teams with high scores and national recognition, both in the college ranks and among the pros. Notre Dame and the Dallas Cowboys certainly fit that bill. Both have long traditions of being great football programs, and both have flashy offenses.
Notre Dame is averaging 32 points and 273 passing yards under QB Brady Quinn and coach Charlie Weis. They are exciting and imaginative in attack, which makes them good television. They have also been overvalued by bettors, at 4-7 ATS this season (2-5 ATS at home). Bettors will factor in a few extra points here and there knowing that the average Joe bet is more likely to throw money at the Irish than, say, Stanford, North Carolina or Purdue, three teams that Notre Dame have beaten but not failed to cover.
I used that reasoning last Monday when the Eagles and Cowboys met in Dallas for an NFC East pivotal game. Overall, it was an even game, with winning teams, aggressive defenses, good coaches, hot quarterbacks and the division title on the line. So why was Dallas a 7-point favorite? It’s far from being a level playing field in the eyes of bettors.
In my analysis of the game, I wrote: “Why is this line so high? The simple reason is that the Cowboys are the American team. More money will come to the Cowboys because they have better players. known, a top owner and a big name manager But looking at the stats, there are two teams that are practically evenly matched.
“The true line should be Dallas -3 or -4, not the full touchdown rate. Philadelphia has only lost one game all season by more than one field goal on the road. Dallas is gaining 5.7 yards per play and allows 5.2, for a plus 0.5 ypp advantage, very strong. But Philadelphia is even better. The Eagles are gaining 6.1 yards per play and allow 5.0, for a positive advantage of 1.1 ypp. That’s the biggest differential in the league. Expect this game to go to the wire with the margin of 7 points without a doubt.”
Philadelphia never doubted they covered the numbers, leading from start to finish. This can also be applied to boules games. Many recognizable high school teams are still bowling, while others are bowling for the first time, or the first time in years.
Motivated and talented lesser-known schools can offer great betting value. Rutgers, for example, was a big play for me last week. There were plenty of reasons to expect a big push from the Scarlet Knights who, let’s face it, you don’t see in bowls or as a national power very often.
Head coach Greg Schiano had the opportunity to move to Miami, Florida and take on a much higher profile position. He turned down the Hurricanes’ offer. It shows that he feels that Rutgers has yet to reach its peak and that it can become a powerful type of football program.
It was only their second bowling match at 28! As further proof, Rutgers fans asked the local cable company to add the NFL Network to their service so they could see their beloved Scarlet Knights play. Their opponent, Kansas State, was starting an erratic first-year quarterback in Josh Freeman, with a low 6-13 touchdown to interception ratio.
I concluded with: “I expect the Scarlet Knights to do well on the field and force the young caller Wildcat to beat them. Supporting this Kansas State team in a come-from-behind mode is unhealthy for your bankroll.” When looking at bowl point spreads, keep in mind which teams are public and which lesser-known quality teams can offer excellent betting value.
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